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Common Questions
What is the difference between seasonal and pandemic influenza?
- Seasonal influenza causes illness in ~5% of adults and ~20% of children each year
- Seasonal influenza is usually a self-limiting illness, albeit
debilitating, but can lead to complications especially in older people (>65 yrs), the very young and those with certain medical conditions
- A pandemic arises from a new influenza virus that spreads globally as there is no pre-existing immunity in humans
- The next pandemic virus does not exist yet and impossible to predict its impact
- All people will be susceptible to a pandemic virus and may have a higher complication rate than seasonal influenza
What is avian influenza?
- A bird disease commonly called 'bird flu'
- One strain of Influenza A (H5N1) has been causing a large bird influenza outbreak since 2003
- It rarely causes human disease: only 168 confirmed infections (to February 2006)
Why the concern about bird flu?
- Avian influenza viruses have been the origin of pandemic viruses in the past
- If H5N1 adapts to people with effective human-to-human spread there will be a pandemic!
- H5N1 has killed over half the confirmed cases to date(but, if adapts to people, mortality will almost certainly be much lower)
- H5N1 outbreaks continue in poultry and may be further spread by both migratory birds and the global poultry trade
Can the spread of H5N1 in birds be stopped?
- Possibly not, but spread can be limited over some years
Will H5N1 cause a pandemic?
- Impossible to answer at present, but the concern is that it may do so
Can the spread of H5N1 in birds be stopped?
- Possibly not, but spread can be limited over some years
Will H5N1 cause a pandemic?
- Impossible to answer at present, but the concern is that it may do so
What is Tamiflu®?
- An antiviral drug used to treat influenza since the 1990s that:
- reduces illness by at least one day
- halves hospitalisation rate
- Tamiflu® must be given within 48 hours of symptoms starting to be effective
- Its effectiveness for pandemic influenza is currently unknown as the virus does not exist yet
- Tamiflu® also prevents influenza; but only works while taking it (it is licensed for up to 6 weeks use); efficacy for pandemic virus unknown, until it emerges
Vaccine against pandemic influenza
- A vaccine cannot be developed until pandemic virus emerges; New Zealand is likely to receive pandemic vaccine no earlier than 15-27 weeks after a pandemic virus is identified.
- A vaccine for H5N1 (avian influenza) is being developed but its effectiveness against pandemic virus is unknown as a pandemic virus does not currently exist.
- Two doses, by injection, are likely to be needed, separated by a 2-4 week interval
How will a pandemic affect us?
- Potentially, many people could be ill at same time, it could
interrupt essential services; and there may be many deaths if virus is
virulent
- Health services are likely to be too stretched to provide hospital services for many pandemic influenza cases or elective services.
- A major danger could be from fear and panic
Should I be concerned about bird flu?
- Yes, because it may lead to emergence of a virus that will cause a
severe pandemic, and awareness helps to prevent and prepare for a
pandemic
- However, at present it remains a bird disease; and when the
virus changes enough to cause a human pandemic, it may not be much more
virulent than seasonal influenza
What can be done to help prevent a pandemic starting from H5N1?
- Control the virus in poultry internationally (there is none in NZ poultry)
- Prevent contact between infected birds and humans to avoid infections
- Every human infection is an opportunity for the avian virus to adapt to humans
- Contact includes touching as well as exposure to bird droppings
- The H5N1 virus is also found in birds killed by infection; eating improperly cooked poultry (ducks, chicken and other birds) in these countries can lead to infection
- Encourage annual vaccine for seasonal influenza
Any advance warning for a pandemic?
- Probably; it depends on how the virus changes to become transmissible in people
- Good surveillance is vital for early warning
- Early warning may allow pandemic to be stopped before it develops
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