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Risk in NZ:
If avian H5N1 enters NZ via an infected bird there is little direct human health threat as long as the virus does not establish itself in bird populations in NZ. More... |
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No Current Risk in NZ Birds:
It is also important to emphasise that, at present, the H5N1 virus does not pose a threat to human health - except in those who have contact with sick birds in the countries affected.
There are no birds infected with H5N1 in New Zealand currently.
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INFLUENZA: seasonal, avian
and pandemic
Pandemic Potential
Avian H5N1 Virus
The H5N1 virus has probably never circulated in human, and may not have the capacity to do so. The fact that the H5N1 virus has failed to acquire human transmissibility, despite extensive contact in humans, suggests that it may not be able to do so.
However, the virus may simply require more time. The genetic
analysis of the 1918 virus suggests that a precursor was circulating
for several years before it acquired the changes for human
transmissibility. This is the reason why the current global priority is
to control the disease in birds and prevent cases of human infection.
If H5N1 acquires human transmissibility, (either through mutation or re-assortment), it is likely to cause a severe pandemic.
Other Avian Viruses
In theory, any avian influenza could acquire the genetic changes become a human influenza virus and cause a pandemic. In addition to H5 viruses causing human infections, there have also been human infections with avian influenza viruses with H7 and H9. However, none of these have yet become human influenza viruses. Not enough is understood about the virus to predict with certainty which of them is the most likely candidate to cause the next pandemic.
Not enough is understood about the virus to predict with certainty
which of them are more likely candidates to cause the next pandemic.
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