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Risk in NZ:
If avian H5N1 enters NZ via an infected bird there is little direct human health threat as long as the virus does not establish itself in bird populations in NZ. More... |
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No Current Risk in NZ Birds:
It is also important to emphasise that, at present, the H5N1 virus does not pose a threat to human health - except in those who have contact with sick birds in the countries affected.
There are no birds infected with H5N1 in New Zealand currently.
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INFLUENZA: seasonal, avian
and pandemic
The possible Impact to New Zealand of a Pandemic
Unknown Timing and Effect:
It is impossible to predict the timing or severity of the next pandemic.
The current situation with the H5N1 virus that is causing severe
human infections is raising anxieties that the pandemic could be
imminent and that the pandemic may be as severe as this virus has such
a high case-fatality rate. However, the virus is likely to become less
lethal as it adapts to humans.
No Current Risk from NZ Birds:
It is also important to emphasise that, at present, the H5N1 virus
does not pose a threat to human health - except in those who have
contact with sick birds in the countries affected.
There are no birds infected with H5N1 in New Zealand currently, and the risk of this happening is thought to be low.
Impact of a Pandemic:
A key question is whether the next pandemic virus to emerge will be
like the 1918 virus which is estimated to have had a case fatality rate
of about 2.5% in the USA, and probably higher in developing countries.
On the other hand, the 1957 and 1968 pandemics only had a case fatality
rate a little bit higher than that of seasonal influenza. [WHO
estimates that the global burden of seasonal influenza at between
250,000 and 500,000 per year.]
Modelling the Impact:
There has been some modelling work done to estimate the potential
impact of a pandemic, using data from the 1957 and 1968 pandemics in a
model developed by CDC-USA. More...
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